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The Toba eruption ∼74,000 y ago was the largest volcanic eruption since the start of the Pleistocene and represents an important test case for understanding the effects of large explosive eruptions on climate and ecosystems. However, the magnitude and repercussions of climatic changes driven by the eruption are strongly debated. High-resolution paleoclimate and archaeological records from Africa find little evidence for the disruption of climate or human activity in the wake of the eruption in contrast with a controversial link with a bottleneck in human evolution and climate model simulations predicting strong volcanic cooling for up to a decade after a Toba-scale eruption. Here, we use a large ensemble of high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM1.3) simulations to reconcile climate model predictions with paleoclimate records, accounting for uncertainties in the magnitude of Toba sulfur emissions with high and low emission scenarios. We find a near-zero probability of annual mean surface temperature anomalies exceeding 4 °C in most of Africa in contrast with near 100% probabilities of cooling this severe in Asia and North America for the high sulfur emission case. The likelihood of strong decreases in precipitation is low in most of Africa. Therefore, even Toba sulfur release at the upper range of plausible estimates remains consistent with the muted response in Africa indicated by paleoclimate proxies. Our results provide a probabilistic view of the uneven patterns of volcanic climate disruption during a crucial interval in human evolution, with implications for understanding the range of environmental impacts from past and future supereruptions. 

Abstract. Lidar observations of the mesospheric Na layer have revealed considerablediurnal variations, particularly on the bottom side of the layer, where morethan an order-of-magnitude increase in Na density has been observed below 80 kmafter sunrise. In this paper, multi-year Na lidar observations areutilized over a full diurnal cycle at Utah State University (USU) (41.8^∘ N,111.8^∘ W) and a global atmospheric model of Na with 0.5 kmvertical resolution in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (WACCM-Na) to explorethe dramatic changes of Na density on the bottom side of the layer. Photolysis of the principal reservoir NaHCO₃ is shown to beprimarily responsible for the increase in Na after sunrise, amplified by theincreased rate of reaction of NaHCO₃ with atomic H, which is mainlyproduced from the photolysis of H₂O and the reaction of OH withO₃. This finding is further supported by Na lidar observation at USUduring the solar eclipse (>96 % totality) event on 21 August 2017, when a decrease and recovery of the Na density on thebottom side of the layer were observed. Lastly, the model simulation showsthat the Fe density below around 80 km increases more strongly and earlierthan observed Na changes during sunrise because of the considerably fasterphotolysis rate of its major reservoir of FeOH. 

ABSTRACT To explore the various couplings across space and time and between ecosystems in a consistent manner, atmospheric modeling is moving away from the fractured limited-scale modeling strategy of the past toward a unification of the range of scales inherent in the Earth system. This paper describes the forward-looking Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICA), which is intended to become the next-generation community infrastructure for research involving atmospheric chemistry and aerosols. MUSICA will be developed collaboratively by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and university and government researchers, with the goal of serving the international research and applications communities. The capability of unifying various spatiotemporal scales, coupling to other Earth system components, and process-level modularization will allow advances in both fundamental and applied research in atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate and is also envisioned to become a platform that addresses the needs of policy makers and stakeholders.